November 11, 2012

Buy and Hold Is Dead...Really?

I recently searched for "Buy and Hold" in Google to see what kind of results I would get. Beyond the first three results, the remaining items on the first page were all articles against the Buy and Hold approach. Here is a snapshot of the search results. My own comments to these articles are in italicized bold font.

The Death of the "Buy and Hold" Investor - Forbes
Forbes claims that “buy and hold” is just for suckers. Forbes explains, buy and hold investors are sitting ducks for the new breed of “high frequency” traders and Wall Street firms who use retail investors as dumping grounds for their dubious products and shares. High frequency trading, as employed by big firms, is no match for the small street guy. In my personal view, this is exactly the reason WHY you and me should buy and hold because, if you don't, you will lose out to the big guy who is doing high frequency trading. Buy and hold takes a long term approach and you if you are a patient investor, market will reward you for the long-term risk you are taking for holding your investments for longer.

Why buy and hold doesn't work anymore - CNN Money
The article claims that Buy-and-hold doesn't work anymore because the volatility is too significant. Holding a mutual fund for 10 years is no longer going to deliver the same kind of expected return that we saw over the course of the last seven decades, simply because of the nature of financial markets and how complex it's gotten. As for solution, the article states that we are in an awkward period of our industry where we haven't developed good alternatives. It recommends to hold a variety of mutual funds diversified not just with stocks and bonds but across the entire spectrum of investment opportunities: stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, and domestically and internationally. If the recommendation is to hold quality diversified mutual funds for longer periods of times, then how is that not a buy and hold strategy. I am at a loss.

The Era Of Buy And Hold Is Over - Using Trade Structure To Play The Swings - Seeking Alpha
This article provides a rule based strategy and an alternative to the buy and hold approach. The author states that you never enter a trade without a profit/risk ratio of at least 2:1. And you never enter a trade without a stop. The author states that, the best traders are wrong about 40% of the time but they make money because they make a lot more on their winners than they lose on their losers. I am not surprised at the active trading angle because the article appears on Seeking Alpha. If 40% of active traders are wrong as the article states, then this is precisely why common street man should adopt to buy and hold strategy. Technical analysis, structured trading, whatever else you want to throw in, are strategies designed for professional traders. They are not really meant for common people like you and me who have day jobs and are investing money on the side.

Conclusion


I just get the feeling that big Wall Street firms have vested interest in active trading because they profit from big and small investors. The more you trade, the more money they make in commissions and fees. This is one reason why you see so many ETF ads on CNBC as opposed to index mutual fund ads. Buy and Hold approach on the other had is a simple, long-term, investment approach. It lets me sleep peacefully at night because I don't have to worry about the short-term market swings. I invest on a regular, automatic basis, and let the markets go up and down knowing that over longer periods of time markets will average out the ups and downs. In my books, Buy and Hold is NOT dead, despite what the big media says.

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